Keep booking profits at appropriate levels
Let 3070 break we will again fall back to 2900-2800 lvl
happy trading
Thursday, April 9, 2009
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
i agree that first set is nearly complete on both KIN & SMR. but if I remember, at the start of the bear run, KIN & SMR both gave a false impression of Bull devices and both failed to pass the time test
i am still awaiting the Election season. once this so called TEJI (speculation as per me, at present) is sustained after election results, then i will surely believe that we are in the BULL mkt.
As of now, it will b pre-mature to say that Bull mkt has evolved. a few conditions are yet to b passed to b considered as firm Bull gripped mkt.
as of now, buying is adviced so that ppl shudnt feel that they missed out on an opportunity to enter at the start of the bull run [if it is actually the start of the bull run].Also, when we know that money is made on the long sides then better trade practically and Keep SL in BUY calls, so that money is made and then cash is withdrawn so that traders feel themselves wise to take profit of the trap [if its a trap and ppl fall to it at the end]
In both the conditions ppl will make money, but now i wont advice to buy at these levels, being so high. but those who have bought they shud keep on trailing their SL so as to keep their profits to a marginal safety.
Mkts always surprise
personally i dont believe in V recoveries. i am a believer in U recovries. and if this is a REAL "V" recovery then we will surpass 21K in no time. mark these words. we took 5 yrs to reach 21K and we will take less than 2 Yrs to attain something higher than that, if this recovery is really a recovery
Broader scale
change the scale of Charts and put the wave thories---both DOW & Elliot. u might see the time puzzle as well [:)]
DISCLAIMER:- I m long since my SL at 2835 was hit. my costing is quite low in many scripts and NIFTY, so dont trade by my words at these levels. keep ur eyes open and trade wisely
Happy Trading
i am still awaiting the Election season. once this so called TEJI (speculation as per me, at present) is sustained after election results, then i will surely believe that we are in the BULL mkt.
As of now, it will b pre-mature to say that Bull mkt has evolved. a few conditions are yet to b passed to b considered as firm Bull gripped mkt.
as of now, buying is adviced so that ppl shudnt feel that they missed out on an opportunity to enter at the start of the bull run [if it is actually the start of the bull run].Also, when we know that money is made on the long sides then better trade practically and Keep SL in BUY calls, so that money is made and then cash is withdrawn so that traders feel themselves wise to take profit of the trap [if its a trap and ppl fall to it at the end]
In both the conditions ppl will make money, but now i wont advice to buy at these levels, being so high. but those who have bought they shud keep on trailing their SL so as to keep their profits to a marginal safety.
Mkts always surprise
personally i dont believe in V recoveries. i am a believer in U recovries. and if this is a REAL "V" recovery then we will surpass 21K in no time. mark these words. we took 5 yrs to reach 21K and we will take less than 2 Yrs to attain something higher than that, if this recovery is really a recovery
Broader scale
change the scale of Charts and put the wave thories---both DOW & Elliot. u might see the time puzzle as well [:)]
DISCLAIMER:- I m long since my SL at 2835 was hit. my costing is quite low in many scripts and NIFTY, so dont trade by my words at these levels. keep ur eyes open and trade wisely
Happy Trading
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Expectation for 25-03-2009
All saying don for Wednesday, but i would advice refrain from shorting unless 2880 is broken in the trade. we might be heading for 3100 level
wait and watch
happy trading
wait and watch
happy trading
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Market moves
SMR below 20 for consecutive 2 session. so i m not advicing trading with negative bias. divergence seen today with mkt falling and SMR too, 2nd time i have seen this in this year. [:O]
so as said earlier, stick to no positional trade for time being.Do just Intraday. also SL at 2835 was hit. atleast i wont advice negative trade as of now and that too positional.
I m sure this is WAVE D of Elliot goin on with great volatility and huge set of optimism
Rest market is supreme
so as said earlier, stick to no positional trade for time being.Do just Intraday. also SL at 2835 was hit. atleast i wont advice negative trade as of now and that too positional.
I m sure this is WAVE D of Elliot goin on with great volatility and huge set of optimism
Rest market is supreme
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Stock Specific Moves
Now its getting clear to me that why this downturn not taking exact shape. When market is oversold then a few INDEX stocks having good weightage are not surrendering to the downturn moves and they keep going up defying the INDEX. and this helps INDEX to stay afloat amidst the rise and fall in various stocks as per weightage. Mean while, after the downturn, when the INDEX comes to oversold situation and other stocks go fully exhausted then the INDEX comes up, but those stocks holding the Downturn afloat earlier, they take the beating and go down against the rising INDEx and this thing is keeping the consolidation Going on at these levels.
Until the parity between these scrips is revised and made to same polarity along with INDEX ratios, we are not seeing any unusual fall in Major INDEX
regards
Until the parity between these scrips is revised and made to same polarity along with INDEX ratios, we are not seeing any unusual fall in Major INDEX
regards
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Trying to delay the Inevitable
Market is witnessing a stressed and a stretched phase of consolidation, after October Lows. and the way market is shrinking in range every week, thats taking all by surprise. Every technical analyst is awaiting the big fall, a fall that will break the previous lows, but the wait is just getting prolonged with each passing day.
Although SENSEX broke its previous lows and closed below those levels at 8106, but somehow the NIFTY managed to avoid that. Every week the range of trade goes tricky for traders. infact the range play is proving to be infavourable for BULLS & BEARS both. The economic grounds are not allowing investors to go long and Fear of reversal is not allowing BEARS to take big charge on the market. Although the wholemarket technicals are in BEARISH phase, yet the possibility of a technical bounce could not be ruled out on this instance which happened last week, coz major Indicators were in oversold territory and the market was supposed to take a bounce.
ROAD AHEAD
The whole world Indices are reaching an Overbought territory at present and the fall is knocking at the door step. Monday should be the last day for this relief rally which started at 2573 and in my view the shorts should be initiated.
BUT, i dont see market drowning all of a sudden, which i was expecting a few days back. My time theory needs adjustments a lot, to estimate nearby correct timing for market moves. I was expecting a big fall in MARCH with Lower Circuits, but i am not seeing any possibilities for those. Though i m not ruling out any downside possibility, but i am not expecting any extraordinary falling spree in World Markets in MARCH series. The market regulators are delaying the fall as it seems, since all the retail are short. In the unvertainity, many shorts were covered in the lastweek and the Discount prevailing in NIFTY, which was near 30 points has shrunk to just 3 points. which just shows Shorts unwinding happening.
STRATEGY
Since DOW closed on Marginal Gains on Friday, i am expecting a small gap up tomorrow, if any, in NIFTY. But, the pull back rally should fizzle out, at around 2750-2780 level and people should start shorting in parts keeping a Stop loss of 2835 on closing basis. I would bet on Shorting on every Bounce on Monday, for a target of 2540-2483 lvl.
Also, i would advice the followers to keep booking profits at intervals, rather than waiting for targets.
Rest lets see what happens this week
Happy trading
Although SENSEX broke its previous lows and closed below those levels at 8106, but somehow the NIFTY managed to avoid that. Every week the range of trade goes tricky for traders. infact the range play is proving to be infavourable for BULLS & BEARS both. The economic grounds are not allowing investors to go long and Fear of reversal is not allowing BEARS to take big charge on the market. Although the wholemarket technicals are in BEARISH phase, yet the possibility of a technical bounce could not be ruled out on this instance which happened last week, coz major Indicators were in oversold territory and the market was supposed to take a bounce.
ROAD AHEAD
The whole world Indices are reaching an Overbought territory at present and the fall is knocking at the door step. Monday should be the last day for this relief rally which started at 2573 and in my view the shorts should be initiated.
BUT, i dont see market drowning all of a sudden, which i was expecting a few days back. My time theory needs adjustments a lot, to estimate nearby correct timing for market moves. I was expecting a big fall in MARCH with Lower Circuits, but i am not seeing any possibilities for those. Though i m not ruling out any downside possibility, but i am not expecting any extraordinary falling spree in World Markets in MARCH series. The market regulators are delaying the fall as it seems, since all the retail are short. In the unvertainity, many shorts were covered in the lastweek and the Discount prevailing in NIFTY, which was near 30 points has shrunk to just 3 points. which just shows Shorts unwinding happening.
STRATEGY
Since DOW closed on Marginal Gains on Friday, i am expecting a small gap up tomorrow, if any, in NIFTY. But, the pull back rally should fizzle out, at around 2750-2780 level and people should start shorting in parts keeping a Stop loss of 2835 on closing basis. I would bet on Shorting on every Bounce on Monday, for a target of 2540-2483 lvl.
Also, i would advice the followers to keep booking profits at intervals, rather than waiting for targets.
Rest lets see what happens this week
Happy trading
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Expectation for 06-03-2009
My First Contrarian Trade
For the first time, i want to take a contrarian trade for tomorrow. Amidst all the falling markets in Europe and USA, and most probably we might see whole asia falling, but i would like to take a contrarian call for BUY NIFTY, for March 6th, 2009.
Technicals suggest a short covering rally, and the leader is SMR. Today it was near its resistance @40-41 lvl during the March 5th trade, it came back and got settled at 34 lvl.
Dont take any trade on my contrarian words for tomorrow, but if u want to take risk then you might earn throught that.
Long term trend is down and will prove it within this month
Happy Trading
For the first time, i want to take a contrarian trade for tomorrow. Amidst all the falling markets in Europe and USA, and most probably we might see whole asia falling, but i would like to take a contrarian call for BUY NIFTY, for March 6th, 2009.
Technicals suggest a short covering rally, and the leader is SMR. Today it was near its resistance @40-41 lvl during the March 5th trade, it came back and got settled at 34 lvl.
Dont take any trade on my contrarian words for tomorrow, but if u want to take risk then you might earn throught that.
Long term trend is down and will prove it within this month
Happy Trading
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