All saying don for Wednesday, but i would advice refrain from shorting unless 2880 is broken in the trade. we might be heading for 3100 level
wait and watch
happy trading
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Market moves
SMR below 20 for consecutive 2 session. so i m not advicing trading with negative bias. divergence seen today with mkt falling and SMR too, 2nd time i have seen this in this year. [:O]
so as said earlier, stick to no positional trade for time being.Do just Intraday. also SL at 2835 was hit. atleast i wont advice negative trade as of now and that too positional.
I m sure this is WAVE D of Elliot goin on with great volatility and huge set of optimism
Rest market is supreme
so as said earlier, stick to no positional trade for time being.Do just Intraday. also SL at 2835 was hit. atleast i wont advice negative trade as of now and that too positional.
I m sure this is WAVE D of Elliot goin on with great volatility and huge set of optimism
Rest market is supreme
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Stock Specific Moves
Now its getting clear to me that why this downturn not taking exact shape. When market is oversold then a few INDEX stocks having good weightage are not surrendering to the downturn moves and they keep going up defying the INDEX. and this helps INDEX to stay afloat amidst the rise and fall in various stocks as per weightage. Mean while, after the downturn, when the INDEX comes to oversold situation and other stocks go fully exhausted then the INDEX comes up, but those stocks holding the Downturn afloat earlier, they take the beating and go down against the rising INDEx and this thing is keeping the consolidation Going on at these levels.
Until the parity between these scrips is revised and made to same polarity along with INDEX ratios, we are not seeing any unusual fall in Major INDEX
regards
Until the parity between these scrips is revised and made to same polarity along with INDEX ratios, we are not seeing any unusual fall in Major INDEX
regards
Sunday, March 15, 2009
Trying to delay the Inevitable
Market is witnessing a stressed and a stretched phase of consolidation, after October Lows. and the way market is shrinking in range every week, thats taking all by surprise. Every technical analyst is awaiting the big fall, a fall that will break the previous lows, but the wait is just getting prolonged with each passing day.
Although SENSEX broke its previous lows and closed below those levels at 8106, but somehow the NIFTY managed to avoid that. Every week the range of trade goes tricky for traders. infact the range play is proving to be infavourable for BULLS & BEARS both. The economic grounds are not allowing investors to go long and Fear of reversal is not allowing BEARS to take big charge on the market. Although the wholemarket technicals are in BEARISH phase, yet the possibility of a technical bounce could not be ruled out on this instance which happened last week, coz major Indicators were in oversold territory and the market was supposed to take a bounce.
ROAD AHEAD
The whole world Indices are reaching an Overbought territory at present and the fall is knocking at the door step. Monday should be the last day for this relief rally which started at 2573 and in my view the shorts should be initiated.
BUT, i dont see market drowning all of a sudden, which i was expecting a few days back. My time theory needs adjustments a lot, to estimate nearby correct timing for market moves. I was expecting a big fall in MARCH with Lower Circuits, but i am not seeing any possibilities for those. Though i m not ruling out any downside possibility, but i am not expecting any extraordinary falling spree in World Markets in MARCH series. The market regulators are delaying the fall as it seems, since all the retail are short. In the unvertainity, many shorts were covered in the lastweek and the Discount prevailing in NIFTY, which was near 30 points has shrunk to just 3 points. which just shows Shorts unwinding happening.
STRATEGY
Since DOW closed on Marginal Gains on Friday, i am expecting a small gap up tomorrow, if any, in NIFTY. But, the pull back rally should fizzle out, at around 2750-2780 level and people should start shorting in parts keeping a Stop loss of 2835 on closing basis. I would bet on Shorting on every Bounce on Monday, for a target of 2540-2483 lvl.
Also, i would advice the followers to keep booking profits at intervals, rather than waiting for targets.
Rest lets see what happens this week
Happy trading
Although SENSEX broke its previous lows and closed below those levels at 8106, but somehow the NIFTY managed to avoid that. Every week the range of trade goes tricky for traders. infact the range play is proving to be infavourable for BULLS & BEARS both. The economic grounds are not allowing investors to go long and Fear of reversal is not allowing BEARS to take big charge on the market. Although the wholemarket technicals are in BEARISH phase, yet the possibility of a technical bounce could not be ruled out on this instance which happened last week, coz major Indicators were in oversold territory and the market was supposed to take a bounce.
ROAD AHEAD
The whole world Indices are reaching an Overbought territory at present and the fall is knocking at the door step. Monday should be the last day for this relief rally which started at 2573 and in my view the shorts should be initiated.
BUT, i dont see market drowning all of a sudden, which i was expecting a few days back. My time theory needs adjustments a lot, to estimate nearby correct timing for market moves. I was expecting a big fall in MARCH with Lower Circuits, but i am not seeing any possibilities for those. Though i m not ruling out any downside possibility, but i am not expecting any extraordinary falling spree in World Markets in MARCH series. The market regulators are delaying the fall as it seems, since all the retail are short. In the unvertainity, many shorts were covered in the lastweek and the Discount prevailing in NIFTY, which was near 30 points has shrunk to just 3 points. which just shows Shorts unwinding happening.
STRATEGY
Since DOW closed on Marginal Gains on Friday, i am expecting a small gap up tomorrow, if any, in NIFTY. But, the pull back rally should fizzle out, at around 2750-2780 level and people should start shorting in parts keeping a Stop loss of 2835 on closing basis. I would bet on Shorting on every Bounce on Monday, for a target of 2540-2483 lvl.
Also, i would advice the followers to keep booking profits at intervals, rather than waiting for targets.
Rest lets see what happens this week
Happy trading
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Expectation for 06-03-2009
My First Contrarian Trade
For the first time, i want to take a contrarian trade for tomorrow. Amidst all the falling markets in Europe and USA, and most probably we might see whole asia falling, but i would like to take a contrarian call for BUY NIFTY, for March 6th, 2009.
Technicals suggest a short covering rally, and the leader is SMR. Today it was near its resistance @40-41 lvl during the March 5th trade, it came back and got settled at 34 lvl.
Dont take any trade on my contrarian words for tomorrow, but if u want to take risk then you might earn throught that.
Long term trend is down and will prove it within this month
Happy Trading
For the first time, i want to take a contrarian trade for tomorrow. Amidst all the falling markets in Europe and USA, and most probably we might see whole asia falling, but i would like to take a contrarian call for BUY NIFTY, for March 6th, 2009.
Technicals suggest a short covering rally, and the leader is SMR. Today it was near its resistance @40-41 lvl during the March 5th trade, it came back and got settled at 34 lvl.
Dont take any trade on my contrarian words for tomorrow, but if u want to take risk then you might earn throught that.
Long term trend is down and will prove it within this month
Happy Trading
SMR= 34.83
so mkts fell today and the index touched near 41 lvl today during trading hours and from there it again started its upside journey bringing some last few minutes 15-20 points on board.
i still propose that one can carry short positions overnight, but longs shud b avoided. also try trading in APRIL series than in March series, thought the results will there in march itself but i still carry some safe measures, as per my trade policy.
So, better carry shorts than longs for POSITIONAL TRADERS.
100% confident----no StopLoss required
Bears wouldnt have imagined this at all
I am afraid to say, but looks as if we are about to hit Lower Circuit soon in the Market. and most probably in March itself
Soon some extremely bad news will enter the markets from no where and that will lead some index stocks to fail to stand to investor confidence and market on that particular day will hit the lower circuit
Trade with caution.
regards
Soon some extremely bad news will enter the markets from no where and that will lead some index stocks to fail to stand to investor confidence and market on that particular day will hit the lower circuit
Trade with caution.
regards
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Expectations For 05-03-2009
Thursday, 5th March, 2009
The market is expecting something good on the Banking Front, and that can only be the rate cuts by RBI. also thats the last positive news left in the market, that will create a sense of optimism. and here it comes, a big green day for Indian Markets.
My choice is to go blindly short on all highs that we make tomorrow, and keep cool with courage. market definitely weak, coz a market that needs news to run, never runs far away, because it doesnt have legs of its own.
Some Technical Talks
SMR, at present @30 lvl, is reaching its Support Zone of 25-20 lvl, from where it will surely bounce and that bounce will have deep red impact on the market. all world markets reaching their overbought zone and tomorrow we will reach there as well, i.e., overbought territory
Bollinger Band theory is also expecting a green day tomorrow and it shud b a big one, coz market values are touching the lower band of bollinger, from where a bounce is very much expected.
Stochastics & RSI, both in oversold zones, and suggesting a sharp upmove during day or a big gap up opening.
%R, suggesting that the market will go for a sharp gap up and a good stable upmove.
MACD, however is in negative bearish territory and suggesting that the market should be left at the earliest. and this is something that is giving me a good signal to go short at every rise, with a SL at 2762 Closing basis for tomorrow
A & D, also suggesting the same as MACD
KINKO, one of my favourites also suggesting that the great downfall started on 27.02.2009, and it wont come to an end so easily.
GMMA, also goin the negative way
ADIX, also suggesting that the sellers are getting more hold on the market than the buyers. so buying in this marklet is not a wise option.
Average True Range, also going the shorters way suggesting a panic buying , or a panic selling in the market soon. Logically paninc buying wont happen, so the other option which has the logiocal reasoning as well, is panic selling very soon to happen in market.
some more indicators suggesting a grand feast for the shorters on cards.
BUT, for 2mrw, we must see off 2700 minimum and 2740 is a hurdle to cross. all in all green day on cards for 2mrw.
STRATEGY
Since i m a basic player, i would advice to short at possible highs than to go long in anticipation. and if u feel that some steam is still left in market then better go just 50% short and save some shorts for Friday.
Happy trading
The market is expecting something good on the Banking Front, and that can only be the rate cuts by RBI. also thats the last positive news left in the market, that will create a sense of optimism. and here it comes, a big green day for Indian Markets.
My choice is to go blindly short on all highs that we make tomorrow, and keep cool with courage. market definitely weak, coz a market that needs news to run, never runs far away, because it doesnt have legs of its own.
Some Technical Talks
SMR, at present @30 lvl, is reaching its Support Zone of 25-20 lvl, from where it will surely bounce and that bounce will have deep red impact on the market. all world markets reaching their overbought zone and tomorrow we will reach there as well, i.e., overbought territory
Bollinger Band theory is also expecting a green day tomorrow and it shud b a big one, coz market values are touching the lower band of bollinger, from where a bounce is very much expected.
Stochastics & RSI, both in oversold zones, and suggesting a sharp upmove during day or a big gap up opening.
%R, suggesting that the market will go for a sharp gap up and a good stable upmove.
MACD, however is in negative bearish territory and suggesting that the market should be left at the earliest. and this is something that is giving me a good signal to go short at every rise, with a SL at 2762 Closing basis for tomorrow
A & D, also suggesting the same as MACD
KINKO, one of my favourites also suggesting that the great downfall started on 27.02.2009, and it wont come to an end so easily.
GMMA, also goin the negative way
ADIX, also suggesting that the sellers are getting more hold on the market than the buyers. so buying in this marklet is not a wise option.
Average True Range, also going the shorters way suggesting a panic buying , or a panic selling in the market soon. Logically paninc buying wont happen, so the other option which has the logiocal reasoning as well, is panic selling very soon to happen in market.
some more indicators suggesting a grand feast for the shorters on cards.
BUT, for 2mrw, we must see off 2700 minimum and 2740 is a hurdle to cross. all in all green day on cards for 2mrw.
STRATEGY
Since i m a basic player, i would advice to short at possible highs than to go long in anticipation. and if u feel that some steam is still left in market then better go just 50% short and save some shorts for Friday.
Happy trading
Monday, March 2, 2009
Technicals Talk
INDIAN VIX
lat present near 40. and in totally over sold territory. Its said that when VIX goes above 50 level then scrips go mad for a dwn fall. The Indian Story is no different, they are just trying to delay the inevitable. Since the CBOE Vix (Chicago VIX) has made a bullish crossover in DMA pattern, and our VIX in oversold conditions, we can expect it to make a bullsih crossover & press the panic button.
NIFTY
No trade zone for last 2 weeks. just trading and trending in a very narrow range, that looks more like a railway track in DMA pattern. With 200 & 100 DMA constantly falling we are in no doubt a long term downtrend and SMR in over sold zone at 24.34 we can expect the further dip possible. The big thing to watch is that wit every over sold level at SMR in last 3 times, NIFTY has shown decreasing values. From 3110 to 2780 level we have travelled on SMR over sold levels. but the only thing showing difference in last 3 situation is that during the earlier situations we were having over bought conditions in NIFTY as well as per RSI, Stoch, %R and many other indicators. but this time only SMR indicates a downfall on cards and rest other indicators project a diferent image for NIFTY for a possible upmove of around 100 points. But, since overall trend is down and nifty is not showing any suatained upmove, i myself believe that NIFTY is sure to fall, if not big time then for good time. but the fall is on the cards. So its better to BUY PUTS for 2700-2800 march series or Short Nifty on all possible highs we see in MARCH or APRIL, and sit patiently to witness the falling financial market
Regards
lat present near 40. and in totally over sold territory. Its said that when VIX goes above 50 level then scrips go mad for a dwn fall. The Indian Story is no different, they are just trying to delay the inevitable. Since the CBOE Vix (Chicago VIX) has made a bullish crossover in DMA pattern, and our VIX in oversold conditions, we can expect it to make a bullsih crossover & press the panic button.
NIFTY
No trade zone for last 2 weeks. just trading and trending in a very narrow range, that looks more like a railway track in DMA pattern. With 200 & 100 DMA constantly falling we are in no doubt a long term downtrend and SMR in over sold zone at 24.34 we can expect the further dip possible. The big thing to watch is that wit every over sold level at SMR in last 3 times, NIFTY has shown decreasing values. From 3110 to 2780 level we have travelled on SMR over sold levels. but the only thing showing difference in last 3 situation is that during the earlier situations we were having over bought conditions in NIFTY as well as per RSI, Stoch, %R and many other indicators. but this time only SMR indicates a downfall on cards and rest other indicators project a diferent image for NIFTY for a possible upmove of around 100 points. But, since overall trend is down and nifty is not showing any suatained upmove, i myself believe that NIFTY is sure to fall, if not big time then for good time. but the fall is on the cards. So its better to BUY PUTS for 2700-2800 march series or Short Nifty on all possible highs we see in MARCH or APRIL, and sit patiently to witness the falling financial market
Regards
Sunday, March 1, 2009
Expectations for 02-03-2009
Witnessing the 1st day of the Series, its for sure that this month will b quite eventful. [:)]
Any waz for Monday, 2nd March, My SMR indicator says a DownFall. but the Nifty is trapped between 2 Retracement levels. Upper Edge is 38.2% of previous fall (2252--3156) & Lower range is 50% retracement of the same range. but the biggest support lies at 2644 which is the last leg retracement support for NIFTY.
one of the support is 2704 and exact 50% retracement level. but what i saw was a HANGING MAN on Friday closing. a hanging man after a green day is most probably signal of a coming downfall. also it has come just above this retracement level. and a weak opening on Monday might open the gateways for the big dwnfall.
But, still i have a big hope for bulls, the 2644 level. unless broken, they will surely come again to test the above said support, which will become a resistance till then. with EMAs getting closer to the Nifty Values now a days, i m expecting this consolidation to come to an end very soon.
So, all in all, for Monday, i m expecting a range bound session or a red session as per my theories
Lets wait and watch the Nifty Dance.
Any waz for Monday, 2nd March, My SMR indicator says a DownFall. but the Nifty is trapped between 2 Retracement levels. Upper Edge is 38.2% of previous fall (2252--3156) & Lower range is 50% retracement of the same range. but the biggest support lies at 2644 which is the last leg retracement support for NIFTY.
one of the support is 2704 and exact 50% retracement level. but what i saw was a HANGING MAN on Friday closing. a hanging man after a green day is most probably signal of a coming downfall. also it has come just above this retracement level. and a weak opening on Monday might open the gateways for the big dwnfall.
But, still i have a big hope for bulls, the 2644 level. unless broken, they will surely come again to test the above said support, which will become a resistance till then. with EMAs getting closer to the Nifty Values now a days, i m expecting this consolidation to come to an end very soon.
So, all in all, for Monday, i m expecting a range bound session or a red session as per my theories
Lets wait and watch the Nifty Dance.
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