Start of a NEW series

March series started with a very good day and so far as i xpect it was inline with what a new series start shud b like. Giving shorters some hope and longers some ray of light and in the end trapping some many more than the good biggies. morning session went to BEARS, and post lunch Session belonged to BULLS. such a sharp recovery. awesome. simply awesome. But where are we heading?

i think this week and the next week in MARCH both shud b great times for bears. I heard the SUN OUTAGE during 2nd week of March starting from 7-8th march (m unsure, plz clarify)SUN OUTAGEs thru out the history have proved to b BEAR PLAYS. Never belonged to BULLS. hope History repeats itself again and we find our pockets full , after all these months of quiet patience. [Fingers Crossed]

Any waz about nifty, i m quite hopeful that we shud fall from MONDAY. SMR says so. Friday morning near 11am SMR was nearly 23.43 Approx and it rose to near 27.76 at around about 12.15 noon. and again the trap stage was set for the journey from LOW to HIGH. i m assuming it all, coz VIX is not REAL TIME available to me, but in a few sites is. (if any1 gets to know then plz post the link in SMR thread). any waz, VIX is available after hours, so that confirms my methodology, which i adapt playing in the mkt along with the real time charts

in the end we landed at 24.43 SMR values and i expect any GAP UP shud b utilised for Shorting.

Rest lets see, what unfolds there for us. any change in the VIX in the morning can change the scene, but thats unlikely.

Regards

Expectations for 26-02-2009

Market should open Gap up, and shud try extending its upmove to 2810-19 levels as at these levels the cross waves collide. including one major resistance wave. PUTS should be taken after 2800 today for March Expiry.

Happy Trading

Expectation for 25-02-2009

mkt is taking a corrective upside rally. the chart formations and patterns showing a quick upside today

Stocks to watch-----RIL, ICICI, HDFC LTD, EDUCOMP, ORBIT CORP.
for a positive move upward. last 2 stocks might give huge returns on long side, formation says

but keep intraday position only. dont carry overnight

Regards

C wave is over in that short term ELLIOT WAVES after 2970.if one more consolidation Elliot is to start then it will peak nearby 2853-2877but outlook is bearish seeing DOWi expect these elliot waves to convert into DOW waves and to b complete in this week days instaed of something more than 1 weeki expect our expiry shud not b below 2750 and shud not b above 2850. so i m suggesting a range os 2750-2850the max upside i m having in my charts is 2913.but thats very difficult in current scene.i wud like to see MARCH shorts to b initiated after 2800 in parts of 10%. the weekly charts are NOT showing extreme weakness to drop to OCTOBER lows, unless something exceptionla wrong happens. also SMR saying something like an SHRINKING RANGE. my range for this week expiry, i already told. Any waz, things can change all of a sudden if DOW and World Mkts perform on bearish mode. still highly unlikely. i m optimistix this time around . every dwnside is a buying opportunity with a SL @2650 CB

My earlier formations

1. http://www.orkut.co.in/Main#AlbumZoom.aspx?uid=7167268951627058955&pid=1234419739363&aid=1233124317$pid=1234419739363

2. http://www.orkut.co.in/Main#AlbumZoom.aspx?uid=7167268951627058955&pid=1234419739363&aid=1233124317$pid=1234419748890

C wave is over in that short term ELLIOT WAVES after 2970.
if one more consolidation Elliot is to start then it will peak nearby 2853-2877
but outlook is bearish seeing DOW

and i expect these elliot waves to convert into DOW waves and to b complete in 2-3 days instaed of 5 sessions

our expiry shud not b below 2750 and shud not b above 2850. so i m suggesting a range os 2750-2850

Market Breath

as expected mkt is in a range, and i feel that the range is drifting dwn day by day. strategy is still to sell at highs, but i wont advice to carry shorts for too long. even a week is quite big these days.
the EMA & SMA lines are telling that mkt will take some more time to go south in a hurry. the SMA at Dwn turn shud b in an order. an order of 50-30-20-10-5, but at present this is in 50-10-5-30-20

such a lopsided move is showing only range, no definite direction. but the good thing is that 50SMA is on top, till its on top we are confirmed of a good dwnside.

a better pattern is shown in weekly charts. 50-30-10-20-5. much better as 10 is ready to cut 20 from top. but changing the parameters bit, we find that 20 & 13 weekly SMA is almost matching. thats again an indication of range.

regards

Expectations for 16-02-2009

Hi friends

Monday should b gap up opening, but the closing must b flat or red. the top nearby 2980-3040 range. the stiff resistance is 2981 and 3018 as per charts. this is a false rally going on in a bear mkt as per its character

Regards

THIS MKT IS ALL ABOUT APPLES AND GUAVAS

Before writing this, i thought to make a new thread to share my views, but now i m entering, all in this thread, my some experience of BEAR RUN, ever since i entered this market.

when i entered the mkt it was the last phase of BULL RUN. i entered in JULY 2007. i just did paper trading and never went to buy anything with my hard earned money, coz i was afraid.i saw stcoks rising like anything b4 my eyes at Religare office. i thought to enter in JAN, after deep thought and made my choice of scrips. i bought RIL and sold at high rate. i was happy. my first deal and i was in profit. with in 7 days i invested good sum and on JAN 21st i lost most of my holding, coz i was using limit. just left with 10% of my actual money invested.

but i dint lose heart and tried again. this time with small profits i did INTRADAY. started reading technicals and became a full time positional trader in 6 months. i saw this bear run very closely, and found out that, with the bear run is associated greed and over excited fools, who just think that there is no night to this day. and keep investing and investing in false hope and much hyped greed.

i maintained my own theories and on fundamental grounds, i m goin to tell evry1 something that all must remember in this mkt..............

APPLES Vs GUAVAS. WHAT DO U LIKE AMONG THESE? NO DOUBT MOST OF THE ANSWERS WILL B APPLES.

JUST IMAGINE THE APPLES ARE SOLD @25/- AND GUAVA@20/-. WHAT WUD U PREFER TO BUY? NO DOUBT APPLES WILL B THE CHOICE. WE ALL GO BUYING APPLES AND THE DEMAND GOES OVER THE SUPPLY AND THE RATES GO HIGHER, WHEREAS WITH LESS DEMAND GUAVA PRICE FALLS. NOW APPLE HAS REACHED 50/- AND GUAVA IS STILL AT 20/- AND SOMETIMES GOES DWN TO 18/-.

SINCE APPLE HAS BECOME COSTLY AND THOSE WHO CANT AFFORD THEY SHIFT TO GUAVA. SUDDEN DEMAND IN GUAVA COMES WITH PRICE RISE AND GUAVA IN QUICK TIME REACHES 40/-. NOW GUAVA HAS DOUBLED AS APPLES DOUBLED.

AGAIN THE PPL THINK BOUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY BETWEEN APPLE AND GUAVA. AND ALL THOSE WHO COULDNOT AFFORD THE APPLES AT THOSE HIGH RATES TRY SHIFTING TO APPLES AGAIN , BEING DRIVEN BY SENTIMENTS AND THINKING. COZ THEY THINK THAT INSTEAD OF BUYING GUAVAS AT 40/- ITS BETTER TO BUY APPLES AT 50/- AND THEY GO FOR APPLES. AGAIN SUDDEN INRUSH IN APPLES BRINGS PRICE HIKE AND RATES GO EVEN HIGHER TO 75/- AND AGAIN THE PPL WHO CANT AFFORD THESE RATES TRY GOIN OUT AND THEY SHIFT TO GUAVAS. AGAIN GUAVA PRICES RISE AND RISE TO 70/- AND THIS TIME THE WISE HEADS FEEL THAT ITS FOOLISHNESS TO EAT APPLES AND GUAVAS AT THESE RATES. BETTER WAIT FOR AFFORDABLE RATES THEN GO BUYING. SO THEY SELL THEIR WHOLE MATERIAL THERE @75/- & 70/- AND GO BACK HOME WITHOUT APPLES AND GUAVAS. BUT THEY BUY CARROTS AND CHIKOOS THEIR WAY BACK. THOSE WHO WERE INTERESTED IN APPLES AND GUAVAS, NOW ARE LEFT WITH HUGE SUPPLIES BUT LESS DEMAND. SO THEY DROP PRICES AND WITH EVERY 1/- FALL IN APPLE THE GUAVAS FALL 5/-. AND IN THE END, PPL FIND THAT THE GUAVAS ARE AVAILABLE AT 15/- AND APPLES AT 30/-

This is Share mkt funda. consider BLUE CHIPS as APPLE and MID/SMALL CAP as GUAVAS. when Blue chips are at peak ppl shift to Mid/Small caps and they dont feel that its a high from where only fall will come.......................................

this happened in JAN'08 and same i witnessed on 4th FEB'09. BLUE Chips were trading at highs a few days back and on 4th the MIDCAPS started their top run. ppl went buying in good faith and next day there awaited the fall. we are not ready to buy RIL above 1300 in big QTY, so we shifted to JP HYDRO, NAGARFERT and others. but that just meant to me a fall and i went short heavily that day, coz i remembered the JAN'08 fall. this story/ principle is quite big and if i start unfolding all the pages then it will b very difficult for me to carry on and for u to listen. but the moral is whenever u see blue chips stagnant and mid caps making high, then come out of the mkt. risky guyz like me SHORT the mkt as well, but the safe players should come out of the mkt.