Profit is the Key

Keep booking profits at appropriate levels
Let 3070 break we will again fall back to 2900-2800 lvl
happy trading

i agree that first set is nearly complete on both KIN & SMR. but if I remember, at the start of the bear run, KIN & SMR both gave a false impression of Bull devices and both failed to pass the time test

i am still awaiting the Election season. once this so called TEJI (speculation as per me, at present) is sustained after election results, then i will surely believe that we are in the BULL mkt.

As of now, it will b pre-mature to say that Bull mkt has evolved. a few conditions are yet to b passed to b considered as firm Bull gripped mkt.

as of now, buying is adviced so that ppl shudnt feel that they missed out on an opportunity to enter at the start of the bull run [if it is actually the start of the bull run].Also, when we know that money is made on the long sides then better trade practically and Keep SL in BUY calls, so that money is made and then cash is withdrawn so that traders feel themselves wise to take profit of the trap [if its a trap and ppl fall to it at the end]

In both the conditions ppl will make money, but now i wont advice to buy at these levels, being so high. but those who have bought they shud keep on trailing their SL so as to keep their profits to a marginal safety.

Mkts always surprise
personally i dont believe in V recoveries. i am a believer in U recovries. and if this is a REAL "V" recovery then we will surpass 21K in no time. mark these words. we took 5 yrs to reach 21K and we will take less than 2 Yrs to attain something higher than that, if this recovery is really a recovery

Broader scale
change the scale of Charts and put the wave thories---both DOW & Elliot. u might see the time puzzle as well [:)]

DISCLAIMER:- I m long since my SL at 2835 was hit. my costing is quite low in many scripts and NIFTY, so dont trade by my words at these levels. keep ur eyes open and trade wisely

Happy Trading

Expectation for 25-03-2009

All saying don for Wednesday, but i would advice refrain from shorting unless 2880 is broken in the trade. we might be heading for 3100 level

wait and watch

happy trading

Market moves

SMR below 20 for consecutive 2 session. so i m not advicing trading with negative bias. divergence seen today with mkt falling and SMR too, 2nd time i have seen this in this year. [:O]

so as said earlier, stick to no positional trade for time being.Do just Intraday. also SL at 2835 was hit. atleast i wont advice negative trade as of now and that too positional.

I m sure this is WAVE D of Elliot goin on with great volatility and huge set of optimism

Rest market is supreme

Stock Specific Moves

Now its getting clear to me that why this downturn not taking exact shape. When market is oversold then a few INDEX stocks having good weightage are not surrendering to the downturn moves and they keep going up defying the INDEX. and this helps INDEX to stay afloat amidst the rise and fall in various stocks as per weightage. Mean while, after the downturn, when the INDEX comes to oversold situation and other stocks go fully exhausted then the INDEX comes up, but those stocks holding the Downturn afloat earlier, they take the beating and go down against the rising INDEx and this thing is keeping the consolidation Going on at these levels.

Until the parity between these scrips is revised and made to same polarity along with INDEX ratios, we are not seeing any unusual fall in Major INDEX

regards

Trying to delay the Inevitable

Market is witnessing a stressed and a stretched phase of consolidation, after October Lows. and the way market is shrinking in range every week, thats taking all by surprise. Every technical analyst is awaiting the big fall, a fall that will break the previous lows, but the wait is just getting prolonged with each passing day.

Although SENSEX broke its previous lows and closed below those levels at 8106, but somehow the NIFTY managed to avoid that. Every week the range of trade goes tricky for traders. infact the range play is proving to be infavourable for BULLS & BEARS both. The economic grounds are not allowing investors to go long and Fear of reversal is not allowing BEARS to take big charge on the market. Although the wholemarket technicals are in BEARISH phase, yet the possibility of a technical bounce could not be ruled out on this instance which happened last week, coz major Indicators were in oversold territory and the market was supposed to take a bounce.

ROAD AHEAD
The whole world Indices are reaching an Overbought territory at present and the fall is knocking at the door step. Monday should be the last day for this relief rally which started at 2573 and in my view the shorts should be initiated.

BUT, i dont see market drowning all of a sudden, which i was expecting a few days back. My time theory needs adjustments a lot, to estimate nearby correct timing for market moves. I was expecting a big fall in MARCH with Lower Circuits, but i am not seeing any possibilities for those. Though i m not ruling out any downside possibility, but i am not expecting any extraordinary falling spree in World Markets in MARCH series. The market regulators are delaying the fall as it seems, since all the retail are short. In the unvertainity, many shorts were covered in the lastweek and the Discount prevailing in NIFTY, which was near 30 points has shrunk to just 3 points. which just shows Shorts unwinding happening.

STRATEGY
Since DOW closed on Marginal Gains on Friday, i am expecting a small gap up tomorrow, if any, in NIFTY. But, the pull back rally should fizzle out, at around 2750-2780 level and people should start shorting in parts keeping a Stop loss of 2835 on closing basis. I would bet on Shorting on every Bounce on Monday, for a target of 2540-2483 lvl.
Also, i would advice the followers to keep booking profits at intervals, rather than waiting for targets.

Rest lets see what happens this week

Happy trading

Expectation for 06-03-2009

My First Contrarian Trade

For the first time, i want to take a contrarian trade for tomorrow. Amidst all the falling markets in Europe and USA, and most probably we might see whole asia falling, but i would like to take a contrarian call for BUY NIFTY, for March 6th, 2009.

Technicals suggest a short covering rally, and the leader is SMR. Today it was near its resistance @40-41 lvl during the March 5th trade, it came back and got settled at 34 lvl.

Dont take any trade on my contrarian words for tomorrow, but if u want to take risk then you might earn throught that.

Long term trend is down and will prove it within this month

Happy Trading

SMR= 34.83

so mkts fell today and the index touched near 41 lvl today during trading hours and from there it again started its upside journey bringing some last few minutes 15-20 points on board.

i still propose that one can carry short positions overnight, but longs shud b avoided. also try trading in APRIL series than in March series, thought the results will there in march itself but i still carry some safe measures, as per my trade policy.

So, better carry shorts than longs for POSITIONAL TRADERS.

100% confident----no StopLoss required

Bears wouldnt have imagined this at all

I am afraid to say, but looks as if we are about to hit Lower Circuit soon in the Market. and most probably in March itself

Soon some extremely bad news will enter the markets from no where and that will lead some index stocks to fail to stand to investor confidence and market on that particular day will hit the lower circuit

Trade with caution.

regards

Expectations For 05-03-2009

Thursday, 5th March, 2009

The market is expecting something good on the Banking Front, and that can only be the rate cuts by RBI. also thats the last positive news left in the market, that will create a sense of optimism. and here it comes, a big green day for Indian Markets.

My choice is to go blindly short on all highs that we make tomorrow, and keep cool with courage. market definitely weak, coz a market that needs news to run, never runs far away, because it doesnt have legs of its own.

Some Technical Talks

SMR, at present @30 lvl, is reaching its Support Zone of 25-20 lvl, from where it will surely bounce and that bounce will have deep red impact on the market. all world markets reaching their overbought zone and tomorrow we will reach there as well, i.e., overbought territory

Bollinger Band theory is also expecting a green day tomorrow and it shud b a big one, coz market values are touching the lower band of bollinger, from where a bounce is very much expected.

Stochastics & RSI, both in oversold zones, and suggesting a sharp upmove during day or a big gap up opening.

%R, suggesting that the market will go for a sharp gap up and a good stable upmove.

MACD, however is in negative bearish territory and suggesting that the market should be left at the earliest. and this is something that is giving me a good signal to go short at every rise, with a SL at 2762 Closing basis for tomorrow

A & D, also suggesting the same as MACD

KINKO, one of my favourites also suggesting that the great downfall started on 27.02.2009, and it wont come to an end so easily.

GMMA, also goin the negative way

ADIX, also suggesting that the sellers are getting more hold on the market than the buyers. so buying in this marklet is not a wise option.

Average True Range, also going the shorters way suggesting a panic buying , or a panic selling in the market soon. Logically paninc buying wont happen, so the other option which has the logiocal reasoning as well, is panic selling very soon to happen in market.

some more indicators suggesting a grand feast for the shorters on cards.

BUT, for 2mrw, we must see off 2700 minimum and 2740 is a hurdle to cross. all in all green day on cards for 2mrw.

STRATEGY
Since i m a basic player, i would advice to short at possible highs than to go long in anticipation. and if u feel that some steam is still left in market then better go just 50% short and save some shorts for Friday.

Happy trading

Technicals Talk

INDIAN VIX
lat present near 40. and in totally over sold territory. Its said that when VIX goes above 50 level then scrips go mad for a dwn fall. The Indian Story is no different, they are just trying to delay the inevitable. Since the CBOE Vix (Chicago VIX) has made a bullish crossover in DMA pattern, and our VIX in oversold conditions, we can expect it to make a bullsih crossover & press the panic button.

NIFTY
No trade zone for last 2 weeks. just trading and trending in a very narrow range, that looks more like a railway track in DMA pattern. With 200 & 100 DMA constantly falling we are in no doubt a long term downtrend and SMR in over sold zone at 24.34 we can expect the further dip possible. The big thing to watch is that wit every over sold level at SMR in last 3 times, NIFTY has shown decreasing values. From 3110 to 2780 level we have travelled on SMR over sold levels. but the only thing showing difference in last 3 situation is that during the earlier situations we were having over bought conditions in NIFTY as well as per RSI, Stoch, %R and many other indicators. but this time only SMR indicates a downfall on cards and rest other indicators project a diferent image for NIFTY for a possible upmove of around 100 points. But, since overall trend is down and nifty is not showing any suatained upmove, i myself believe that NIFTY is sure to fall, if not big time then for good time. but the fall is on the cards. So its better to BUY PUTS for 2700-2800 march series or Short Nifty on all possible highs we see in MARCH or APRIL, and sit patiently to witness the falling financial market

Regards

Expectations for 02-03-2009

Witnessing the 1st day of the Series, its for sure that this month will b quite eventful. [:)]

Any waz for Monday, 2nd March, My SMR indicator says a DownFall. but the Nifty is trapped between 2 Retracement levels. Upper Edge is 38.2% of previous fall (2252--3156) & Lower range is 50% retracement of the same range. but the biggest support lies at 2644 which is the last leg retracement support for NIFTY.

one of the support is 2704 and exact 50% retracement level. but what i saw was a HANGING MAN on Friday closing. a hanging man after a green day is most probably signal of a coming downfall. also it has come just above this retracement level. and a weak opening on Monday might open the gateways for the big dwnfall.

But, still i have a big hope for bulls, the 2644 level. unless broken, they will surely come again to test the above said support, which will become a resistance till then. with EMAs getting closer to the Nifty Values now a days, i m expecting this consolidation to come to an end very soon.

So, all in all, for Monday, i m expecting a range bound session or a red session as per my theories

Lets wait and watch the Nifty Dance.

Start of a NEW series

March series started with a very good day and so far as i xpect it was inline with what a new series start shud b like. Giving shorters some hope and longers some ray of light and in the end trapping some many more than the good biggies. morning session went to BEARS, and post lunch Session belonged to BULLS. such a sharp recovery. awesome. simply awesome. But where are we heading?

i think this week and the next week in MARCH both shud b great times for bears. I heard the SUN OUTAGE during 2nd week of March starting from 7-8th march (m unsure, plz clarify)SUN OUTAGEs thru out the history have proved to b BEAR PLAYS. Never belonged to BULLS. hope History repeats itself again and we find our pockets full , after all these months of quiet patience. [Fingers Crossed]

Any waz about nifty, i m quite hopeful that we shud fall from MONDAY. SMR says so. Friday morning near 11am SMR was nearly 23.43 Approx and it rose to near 27.76 at around about 12.15 noon. and again the trap stage was set for the journey from LOW to HIGH. i m assuming it all, coz VIX is not REAL TIME available to me, but in a few sites is. (if any1 gets to know then plz post the link in SMR thread). any waz, VIX is available after hours, so that confirms my methodology, which i adapt playing in the mkt along with the real time charts

in the end we landed at 24.43 SMR values and i expect any GAP UP shud b utilised for Shorting.

Rest lets see, what unfolds there for us. any change in the VIX in the morning can change the scene, but thats unlikely.

Regards

Expectations for 26-02-2009

Market should open Gap up, and shud try extending its upmove to 2810-19 levels as at these levels the cross waves collide. including one major resistance wave. PUTS should be taken after 2800 today for March Expiry.

Happy Trading

Expectation for 25-02-2009

mkt is taking a corrective upside rally. the chart formations and patterns showing a quick upside today

Stocks to watch-----RIL, ICICI, HDFC LTD, EDUCOMP, ORBIT CORP.
for a positive move upward. last 2 stocks might give huge returns on long side, formation says

but keep intraday position only. dont carry overnight

Regards

C wave is over in that short term ELLIOT WAVES after 2970.if one more consolidation Elliot is to start then it will peak nearby 2853-2877but outlook is bearish seeing DOWi expect these elliot waves to convert into DOW waves and to b complete in this week days instaed of something more than 1 weeki expect our expiry shud not b below 2750 and shud not b above 2850. so i m suggesting a range os 2750-2850the max upside i m having in my charts is 2913.but thats very difficult in current scene.i wud like to see MARCH shorts to b initiated after 2800 in parts of 10%. the weekly charts are NOT showing extreme weakness to drop to OCTOBER lows, unless something exceptionla wrong happens. also SMR saying something like an SHRINKING RANGE. my range for this week expiry, i already told. Any waz, things can change all of a sudden if DOW and World Mkts perform on bearish mode. still highly unlikely. i m optimistix this time around . every dwnside is a buying opportunity with a SL @2650 CB

My earlier formations

1. http://www.orkut.co.in/Main#AlbumZoom.aspx?uid=7167268951627058955&pid=1234419739363&aid=1233124317$pid=1234419739363

2. http://www.orkut.co.in/Main#AlbumZoom.aspx?uid=7167268951627058955&pid=1234419739363&aid=1233124317$pid=1234419748890

C wave is over in that short term ELLIOT WAVES after 2970.
if one more consolidation Elliot is to start then it will peak nearby 2853-2877
but outlook is bearish seeing DOW

and i expect these elliot waves to convert into DOW waves and to b complete in 2-3 days instaed of 5 sessions

our expiry shud not b below 2750 and shud not b above 2850. so i m suggesting a range os 2750-2850

Market Breath

as expected mkt is in a range, and i feel that the range is drifting dwn day by day. strategy is still to sell at highs, but i wont advice to carry shorts for too long. even a week is quite big these days.
the EMA & SMA lines are telling that mkt will take some more time to go south in a hurry. the SMA at Dwn turn shud b in an order. an order of 50-30-20-10-5, but at present this is in 50-10-5-30-20

such a lopsided move is showing only range, no definite direction. but the good thing is that 50SMA is on top, till its on top we are confirmed of a good dwnside.

a better pattern is shown in weekly charts. 50-30-10-20-5. much better as 10 is ready to cut 20 from top. but changing the parameters bit, we find that 20 & 13 weekly SMA is almost matching. thats again an indication of range.

regards

Expectations for 16-02-2009

Hi friends

Monday should b gap up opening, but the closing must b flat or red. the top nearby 2980-3040 range. the stiff resistance is 2981 and 3018 as per charts. this is a false rally going on in a bear mkt as per its character

Regards

THIS MKT IS ALL ABOUT APPLES AND GUAVAS

Before writing this, i thought to make a new thread to share my views, but now i m entering, all in this thread, my some experience of BEAR RUN, ever since i entered this market.

when i entered the mkt it was the last phase of BULL RUN. i entered in JULY 2007. i just did paper trading and never went to buy anything with my hard earned money, coz i was afraid.i saw stcoks rising like anything b4 my eyes at Religare office. i thought to enter in JAN, after deep thought and made my choice of scrips. i bought RIL and sold at high rate. i was happy. my first deal and i was in profit. with in 7 days i invested good sum and on JAN 21st i lost most of my holding, coz i was using limit. just left with 10% of my actual money invested.

but i dint lose heart and tried again. this time with small profits i did INTRADAY. started reading technicals and became a full time positional trader in 6 months. i saw this bear run very closely, and found out that, with the bear run is associated greed and over excited fools, who just think that there is no night to this day. and keep investing and investing in false hope and much hyped greed.

i maintained my own theories and on fundamental grounds, i m goin to tell evry1 something that all must remember in this mkt..............

APPLES Vs GUAVAS. WHAT DO U LIKE AMONG THESE? NO DOUBT MOST OF THE ANSWERS WILL B APPLES.

JUST IMAGINE THE APPLES ARE SOLD @25/- AND GUAVA@20/-. WHAT WUD U PREFER TO BUY? NO DOUBT APPLES WILL B THE CHOICE. WE ALL GO BUYING APPLES AND THE DEMAND GOES OVER THE SUPPLY AND THE RATES GO HIGHER, WHEREAS WITH LESS DEMAND GUAVA PRICE FALLS. NOW APPLE HAS REACHED 50/- AND GUAVA IS STILL AT 20/- AND SOMETIMES GOES DWN TO 18/-.

SINCE APPLE HAS BECOME COSTLY AND THOSE WHO CANT AFFORD THEY SHIFT TO GUAVA. SUDDEN DEMAND IN GUAVA COMES WITH PRICE RISE AND GUAVA IN QUICK TIME REACHES 40/-. NOW GUAVA HAS DOUBLED AS APPLES DOUBLED.

AGAIN THE PPL THINK BOUT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY BETWEEN APPLE AND GUAVA. AND ALL THOSE WHO COULDNOT AFFORD THE APPLES AT THOSE HIGH RATES TRY SHIFTING TO APPLES AGAIN , BEING DRIVEN BY SENTIMENTS AND THINKING. COZ THEY THINK THAT INSTEAD OF BUYING GUAVAS AT 40/- ITS BETTER TO BUY APPLES AT 50/- AND THEY GO FOR APPLES. AGAIN SUDDEN INRUSH IN APPLES BRINGS PRICE HIKE AND RATES GO EVEN HIGHER TO 75/- AND AGAIN THE PPL WHO CANT AFFORD THESE RATES TRY GOIN OUT AND THEY SHIFT TO GUAVAS. AGAIN GUAVA PRICES RISE AND RISE TO 70/- AND THIS TIME THE WISE HEADS FEEL THAT ITS FOOLISHNESS TO EAT APPLES AND GUAVAS AT THESE RATES. BETTER WAIT FOR AFFORDABLE RATES THEN GO BUYING. SO THEY SELL THEIR WHOLE MATERIAL THERE @75/- & 70/- AND GO BACK HOME WITHOUT APPLES AND GUAVAS. BUT THEY BUY CARROTS AND CHIKOOS THEIR WAY BACK. THOSE WHO WERE INTERESTED IN APPLES AND GUAVAS, NOW ARE LEFT WITH HUGE SUPPLIES BUT LESS DEMAND. SO THEY DROP PRICES AND WITH EVERY 1/- FALL IN APPLE THE GUAVAS FALL 5/-. AND IN THE END, PPL FIND THAT THE GUAVAS ARE AVAILABLE AT 15/- AND APPLES AT 30/-

This is Share mkt funda. consider BLUE CHIPS as APPLE and MID/SMALL CAP as GUAVAS. when Blue chips are at peak ppl shift to Mid/Small caps and they dont feel that its a high from where only fall will come.......................................

this happened in JAN'08 and same i witnessed on 4th FEB'09. BLUE Chips were trading at highs a few days back and on 4th the MIDCAPS started their top run. ppl went buying in good faith and next day there awaited the fall. we are not ready to buy RIL above 1300 in big QTY, so we shifted to JP HYDRO, NAGARFERT and others. but that just meant to me a fall and i went short heavily that day, coz i remembered the JAN'08 fall. this story/ principle is quite big and if i start unfolding all the pages then it will b very difficult for me to carry on and for u to listen. but the moral is whenever u see blue chips stagnant and mid caps making high, then come out of the mkt. risky guyz like me SHORT the mkt as well, but the safe players should come out of the mkt.