Trying to delay the Inevitable

Market is witnessing a stressed and a stretched phase of consolidation, after October Lows. and the way market is shrinking in range every week, thats taking all by surprise. Every technical analyst is awaiting the big fall, a fall that will break the previous lows, but the wait is just getting prolonged with each passing day.

Although SENSEX broke its previous lows and closed below those levels at 8106, but somehow the NIFTY managed to avoid that. Every week the range of trade goes tricky for traders. infact the range play is proving to be infavourable for BULLS & BEARS both. The economic grounds are not allowing investors to go long and Fear of reversal is not allowing BEARS to take big charge on the market. Although the wholemarket technicals are in BEARISH phase, yet the possibility of a technical bounce could not be ruled out on this instance which happened last week, coz major Indicators were in oversold territory and the market was supposed to take a bounce.

ROAD AHEAD
The whole world Indices are reaching an Overbought territory at present and the fall is knocking at the door step. Monday should be the last day for this relief rally which started at 2573 and in my view the shorts should be initiated.

BUT, i dont see market drowning all of a sudden, which i was expecting a few days back. My time theory needs adjustments a lot, to estimate nearby correct timing for market moves. I was expecting a big fall in MARCH with Lower Circuits, but i am not seeing any possibilities for those. Though i m not ruling out any downside possibility, but i am not expecting any extraordinary falling spree in World Markets in MARCH series. The market regulators are delaying the fall as it seems, since all the retail are short. In the unvertainity, many shorts were covered in the lastweek and the Discount prevailing in NIFTY, which was near 30 points has shrunk to just 3 points. which just shows Shorts unwinding happening.

STRATEGY
Since DOW closed on Marginal Gains on Friday, i am expecting a small gap up tomorrow, if any, in NIFTY. But, the pull back rally should fizzle out, at around 2750-2780 level and people should start shorting in parts keeping a Stop loss of 2835 on closing basis. I would bet on Shorting on every Bounce on Monday, for a target of 2540-2483 lvl.
Also, i would advice the followers to keep booking profits at intervals, rather than waiting for targets.

Rest lets see what happens this week

Happy trading